India under the government of long-criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi Has Been Listed Fifth Biggest Geo-political Risk of 2020: Eurasia Group report – a political risk consultancy – in a list that is topped by elections in the US and followed by events and developments like the US-China technology tug of war on 5G as well as the trade war between the economic giants Beijing and Washington.
According to Ian Bremmer (President of the Eurasia Group) and Cliff Kupchan (Eurasia Group chairman), Modi has spent much of his second spell since winning the April-May poll promoting contentious social policies at the expense of an economic agenda.
“The impacts will be felt in 2020, with acute communal and sectarian instability, as well as foreign policy and economic blow backs,” the two said in their assessment report released on Monday.
The most recent changes introduced by Modi in his second term include the revocation of the disputed status for Jammu and Kashmir through an Act that was passed by the Indian Parliament. There was also the initiation of the process to identify illegal immigrants in the region of Assam, which has left 1.9 million people out of a National Registry of Citizens. “The government also passed a law in the parliament that, for the first time, makes religion a criterion for migrants from neighboring countries to formally acquire Indian citizenship,” Bremmer and Kupchan stated – referring to a law passed by India’s Parliament in December which the government says provides fast and direct route of citizenship to minorities like Buddhists, Christians, Sikhs, Jains and Parsis from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Sectarian and Religious Conflict
“Sectarian and religious conflict will evolve accordingly. Kashmir is a potential war zone, with political leaders still under arrest and internet access cut off. Protests have already expanded all around India as many citizens fear the loss of India’s long claimed secular identity. The government’s harsh and dirty response, in turn, will provoke still more demonstrations. But Modi will not settle down, and as the government pursues its new agenda, state-level opposition parties will directly challenge the central government,” the report warned. In August, the government repealed a temporary provision in its Constitution and removed the special status given to Kashmir. It also bifurcated Kashmir into two union territories. Ahead of the moves, the government placed Kashmiri politicians in preventive stand by and cut media and social communications like internet and mobile phone service. Some of the communication services have now been gradually enabled.”
Its a change in views for Bremmer who had earlier argued that Modi is India’s best hope for economic reform and stabiltiy in the May 2019 edition of Time magazine, the same edition in which author Aatish Taseer had termed Modi Divider-in-Chief.
Narendra Modi Has Been Listed Fifth Biggest Geo-political Risk of 2020: Eurasia Group report, maybe this well stir up some political pressure on Modi.